View of Catalinas yesterday at 5:00 pm MST - about as active as it got.
The plot of CG flashes (below for 24-hours ending 7:00 am this morning from Atmo and Vaisala) shows that again, thunderstorms stayed mostly off to the southeast and south of our area. No rainfall in entire ALERT network, except for 0.04" down at Arivaca.
MIMIC TPW analysis above for 5:00 am shows a nice plume of values around 1.50 inches over much of southern Arizona.
The morning TWC sounding analysis (below, for 12 UTC from SPC) has 1.53" of PW and more low-level moisture than I've seen in awhile. Lifted condensation level is down about 700 mb; but, WRF forecasts dry out low-levels considerably. However, there is decent CAPE. Winds are very light below 600 mb, but perhaps some steering winds from 600 to 400 mb, Fairly decent shear from 600 to 150 mb. Looking at this sounding, I'd expect an increase in thunderstorm activity over eastern Pima County today.
Final aspect of morning situation is that there is a weak, 500 mb inverted trough west of El Paso that will brush far southeast Arizona this afternoon.
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