Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Very Moist And Unstable This Morning

View of Catalinas this morning from campus, showing heavy cloud cover. Radar below from 7:20 am MST shows morning showers and thunderstorms near Phoenix and to southwest of metro Tucson. These are moving generally northward,

Detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala for 24-hours ending 1:00 am this morning) shows an expanded donut hole over metro area and much of eastern Pima County. Rainfall from ALERT below for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning. Again, metro area with nothing reaching 0.04". There was a Trace here shortly after dark. Rainfall stayed on the mountains and to the southwest part of the network. Heaviest amounts stretched east-to-west south of Green Valley.

The morning sounding plot for TWC (above) shows high PW (near two inches) and significant CAPE (over 1000 J/Kg). Winds are southerly through the entire troposphere - which can be problematic here if there is anvil shading. However, 1330 UTC visible satellite image below shows cloud cover across all of southern Arizona, except for some clear areas along border of southern Cochise County. So heating may be lacking today, but not much will be needed for storm development. Should be an interesting day to watch the weather.

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