Middle clouds drifting over Catalinas at 6:00 am MST this morning. The low sun angle really highlights the dirty air over the City.
Visible satellite image from 6:30 am above shows large mass of middle-level cloudiness over Sonora and southern Arizona. Some debris here from thunderstorm activity, and some have just been moving around the 500 mb anticyclone. Movement is toward northwest-to-north. There are some associated buildups apparent over northwestern Sonora.
Detected CG flashes over Mexico (below - from Atmo and Vaisala for 12-hours ending at midnight last night) indicates most thunderstorm activity continued to remain far to our south.
This morning's sounding plot is similar to yesterday's, with hint of mid-level CAPE but with a very dry boundary layer below 500 mb. There has been an increase in winds from the east-southeast around 500 mb.
This morning's 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF for Tucson are interesting. All of the ensemble members predict slight chances for light rain amounts this week. But, the operational GFS (blue) is a very heavy outlier, with amounts at end of period 10 times the GEFS average.
WRF models forecast slight chance of mountain storms today with very minimal rainfall.
Art Douglas emailed yesterday about how terribly dry it has been across Mexico this year. Map above shows anomalies for July through the 9th, while below shows 2019 anomalies through July 9th. Their drought appears very severe south of about 27 degrees north.
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