View of Catalinas (above) at 7:00 pm MST yesterday, a bit before a strong outflow from the south crossed the metro area. Composite radar (below) from 6:00 pm shows large area of convection and thunderstorms over northeast Sonora that produced the outflow. Airport had gusts to 30 mph at 8:30 pm and DM recorded 38 mph. Strong winds and some dust here right about sunset.
The outflow, along with approach of weak mid-level cyclone from southeast, produced large increases in PW - MIMIC analysis of TPW above is from 6:00 am this morning.
This morning's upper-air plot for TWC (below) shows a moisture increase from surface to 500 mb of about half an inch since 00 UTC sounding last evening. This sounding has considerable CAPE and is much more favorable for low-elevation thunderstorms than any we've seen in quite some while. There are almost no winds below 300 mb, so slow moving storms could produce some spots of heavy rainfall.
Visible image from 14 UTC (above) shows that cyclone remains south of the border this morning but it should shift northward during the day. We definitely have the most interesting synoptic pattern of the summer so far.
The WRF-RR forecast (from 12 UTC this morning) indicates possibility of heavy thunderstorms over the metro area this afternoon (forecast of composite radar below valid at 4:00 pm today). Looks like a good day to watch what actually develops.
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