Pressed for time this morning. Image above from late yesterday - dark skies but no storms.
Very cloudy and warm morning here - 84F at 6:00 am MST - due to widespread cloudiness.
Plot above of detected CGs (from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 12-hours of flashes ending at 06 UTC last night. Thunderstorms again avoided southeast Arizona - but storm activity over southwest New Mexico helped to push clouds and higher PW our way. Visible image below from 6:15 am - shows the extensive cloudiness covering much of state.
MIMIC PW analysis above from 12 UTC this morning - moisture coming from New Mexico well-depicted. Large swirl south of New Orleans is TS Barry - nearly stationary at this time.
Below is 12 UTC TWC sounding plot: PW is up to about 1.25 ", but low-levels remain very dry, slight mid-level CAPE as per last several days, nice vertical wind profile with mid-level easterlies becoming southwesterlies at upper-levels.
Nighttime WRF runs forecast limited thunderstorms, with light precipitation, over parts of eastern Pima County this afternoon. But, clearly we're still waiting for a feature to come along that will push serious moisture north across southern Arizona.
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