Storm over Baboquivari bit before 1:00 pm MST yesterday. Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) below is for 12-hours ending at 3:00 am this morning. Storms over southeast Arizona stayed mostly locked to mountains yesterday. Note below that strong thunderstorms moved across the central CoG - which is good to help strong moisture push. There is heavy cloud cover this morning that is debris from activity to our south.
This morning's upper-air sounding plot (above for 12 UTC) indicates PW above 1.50 inches, with considerable afternoon CAPE. There's a bit of a cap around 600 mb, so outflows from the mountains will be needed to kick off low elevation storms. Decent vertical wind profile above 600 mb - all-in-all an interesting sounding to start the new week. The 12 UTC 500 mb analysis this morning (below, from SPC) shows the anticyclone centered near the Four Corners. Also appears to be a weak, inverted trough near the New Mexico bootheel.
Forecast of radar composite echoes from 06 UTC WRF-GFS (above valid at 5:00 pm this afternoon) indicates heavy storms crossing parts of Pima County. Wind forecast from same run indicate indicates very strong winds at 5:30 pm southwest of Tucson. Let's hope for some sunshine and heating by midday to initiate storm activity.
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