Popcorn cumulus floating over the Catalinas at 7:37 am MST this morning. Air looks a bit dirty.
This morning's 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) shows the large-scale anticyclone has shifted westward and is now over the northern New Mexico border. Appears to be a weak short-wave moving northward along the southern Arizona border with cooler 500 mb temperatures, but warmer temperatures likely from east next day or two.
The morning TWC sounding plot (below, also from SPC) shows PW has creeped up to 0.83", but essentially no CAPE, and a very chopped up wind profile below 300 mb.
Above plot (from Atmo and Vaisala) shows detected CG flashes through through 05 UTC last night - thunderstorms still far off to the south.
The WRF-GFS forecast for PW below is from 06 UTC run last night and is valid at 9:30 am on the 12th - PW appears to be increasing mainly from the east, with values continuing to inch upward just over 30 mm. However, the forecast from same run for total rainfall through 10:30 am on the 13th is not very exciting (bottom). Looks like our waiting game will continue a few more days.
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