Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Scattered Storms Yesterday - Repeat Today Likely

Some nice colors at sunrise this morning.

Plot of CG flashes (above for 24-hours from Atmo and Vaisala is thru 12:30 am MST last night) indicates much thunderstorm activity over southeastern Arizona. Here in eastern Pima County storm activity over mountains east jumped parts of metro out into central parts of County.

ALERT rainfall observations (above through 7:00 am this morning) shows heavier amounts over the Rincons with not much over large part of metro area. Other amounts: TUS 0.14", DM Trace, Atmo 0.04", and here 0.06".

The NWS has issued a flash flood watch for this afternoon into the night - watch area shown below.

Little change at 500 mb (above), with anticyclone center northern New Mexico. Continue to be weak short waves over northern Mexico. Plots above and below from SPC.

The morning TWC sounding (below) is similar to yesterday's, with PW about an inch and a half and quite moist above 600 mb. There's a layer of stronger easterlies below 500 mb that could bring some downslope winds later today. Moisture somewhat lacking in low-levels - puts cloud bases around 600 mb with a sliver pf CAPE.

Radar forecast at bottom is from 12 UTC WRFRR and valid at 3:30 pm this afternoon. Models forecast increased thunderstorm activity for today.

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