Radar above from 5:41 pm MST yesterday - nice activity northeast of here, but it withered away before reaching Benson. Plot of CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) for 12-hours ending at 05 UTC last night shows most activity just south of border and quite dead around Tucson. Certainly didn't call things very well yesterday, when I thought there'd be an uptick in storms for eastern Pima County.
Visible image from 6:30 am this morning (above) shows Sonora cloudiness extending well northward across western Arizona. The morning 500 mb analysis (from SPC below) shows that the center of anticyclone has shifted eastward into into Kansas and Oklahoma. Note the very warm temperatures from western California eastward across Iowa.
The morning TWC sounding analysis (above, also from SPC) is similar to yesterday's with limited CAPE but increased PW. Wind profile continues to be chopped up. The GEFS plumes for Tucson QPF from 06 UTC (below) are also dismal. Note that the operational GFS continues to be an extreme outlier relative to other members. Only 12 days left in July - will this dry pattern break?
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