View above at 4:00 pm MST yesterday showing heavy anvil overhead. The anvil shade kept activity almost totally suppressed. Bit of mountain convection produced 0.04" at Mt. Lemmon and 0.08" at Florida Canyon in the Santa Ritas. Plot of CG flashes detected through 0803 UTC this morning (below) indicates heavy thunderstorm activity over the Santa Ritas, which resulted in the anvil cloud cover here.
There was a large MCS over the GoC this morning - IR image above from 11 UTC. System was pretty far south in GoC, so it's not clear if it will increase southerly flow into Arizona later this morning.
Pattern remains fairly stagnant, although 250 mb center of anticyclone has shifted a bit northeastward into western Kansas. Sounding at TWC/TUS at 12 UTC is similar to yesterday's, with wind profile that would again favor anvils spreading northward ahead of storms.
The 09 UTC run of the WRF-RR forecasts storms into metro area late afternoon - echoes at bottom valid at 6:00 pm. Model forecasts steering winds to become easterly during the afternoon.
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