Pre-sunrise view of isolated clouds over the Catalinas.
Plot of detected CG flashes (above, from Atmo and Vaisala) through 0703 UTC (1203 am) today - thunderstorm activity increased relative to Sunday, but remained east of most of the metro area. Plot from ALERT network (below) shows only some scattered reports, but with a cluster of heavy reports in the southeast corner of the network. It was another dry day here at the house.
The morning sounding from TWC/TUS terminated early, and is shown above. If the BL mixes out to 700 mb, there is considerable CAPE. The wind profile shows increased southwesterly speeds above 300 mb, but with light easterly winds below 500 mb. Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon will probably be outflow driven - but any storms southwest of the metro will send their anvils overhead.
The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast from Atmo (above) forecasts significant rainfall by midnight for much of the metro area. However, the 12 UTC run of the WRF-HRRR (below) forecasts more isolated and lighter amounts around eastern Pima County. Another day where the actual outcomes are hard to anticipate.
The NWS graphic this morning (second below) provides yet another possible distribution of storms later today - note the POPs are hard to see but that at Tucson is 46 percent.
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