After yesterday's morning showers moved off to the northwest, there were sparkling blue skies (above) the rest of the day. The lack of storm activity continued through the night, and this morning there are some high clouds and perhaps a bit of haze (below).
The plot of detected CG flashes (above from Atmo and Vaisala) is for the 24-hours ending at 6:03 am MST this morning. There was an almost complete lack of thunderstorms during this period for all of southern Arizona.
This morning the massive anticyclone aloft continues to dominate most of the western US - above shows the 250 mb circualtion center over northern New Mexico. The 500 mb analysis is an absolute mess because of very slight height gradients, and I didn't feel it was worth showing.
The 12 UTC TWC/TUS sounding (above) continues moist below 700 mb, with considerable potential CAPE and only a very slight cap. Storms that develop today will tend to move northward, with their anvils spreading out in the same direction. Not a favorable orientation for lower elevations.
However, many of the models forecast abundant storms today through the weekend. The 06 UTC GFS forecast below is for total rainfall through Sunday evening at 11:00 pm, with significant amounts indicated for southeast Arizona.
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