View toward the Rincons at sunrise this morning - about 5:50 am MST.
Considerably more rainfall across the ALERT network than I expected yesterday - I went with the down day forecast (see previous post). Looks like areal coverage of amounts 0.04" and more was about 40 percent. Here at house we had a light shower in afternoon that gave us 0.01" - Atmo reported 0.12" ; DM had 0.13" and airport reported a Trace. The plot of detected CG flashes (second below, from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 24 hours ending at 0733 UTC - it was a very active day for most of Arizona, but thunderstorm activity was quite limited in our corner of the state.
The 500 mb chart remains a mess (above) over the Southwest with very light winds - does look like the weak, closed low has settled over the northern GoC for the weekend. Challenge - try to figure out the height contours over south Texas.
Sounding this morning at TWC/TUS (below) remains very moist with a fair amount of CAPE - note the very light winds from 200 mb down to the surface. My morning walk was like being in a sauna!
Even though there are no significant forcing features, the models continue to forecast prolific amounts of rainfall this weekend. The 09 UTC forecast above shows total rainfall forecast through 6:00 pm tomorrow afternoon (from 09 UTC WRF-RR). The amounts of rain forecast at the airport by the GEFS members (below) are quite mind-boggling. Should certainly be an interesting three days.
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