Last sunrise of August was quite nice this morning.
Plot of detected CG flashes (below) for 24-hours ending at 0103 am MST this morning shows no activity over Pima and Santa Cruz Counties, and only a few flashes in the far southeast corner of the state (from Atmo and Vaisala). No rainfall occurred across the ALERT network during past 24-hours (note that there is one site reporting bad data in the Catalinas).
At 500 mb this morning (above) the very elongated anticyclone stretches from central California to the Southeast, with its circulation center over the Great Basin. An inverted trough extends from southern Baja to southwest Texas. As this system brushes by tomorrow into Friday, it may bring a chance for showers along the Borderlands.
The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (above) is quite dry and stable. Wind speeds aloft are fairly strong through the entire troposphere. The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast for precipitation through midnight tonight (below) indicates almost no rainfall across the entire state.
It is of interest that both the Atlantic and Pacific are becoming active wrt tropical systems. The NHC outlooks (above and below) indicate high likelihood for several disturbances to develop into storms during the coming five days (above and below).
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