Beautiful, golden skies at 5:50 am MST this morning - view is toward the Rincons.
Big donut hole in thunderstorm activity yesterday (plot of detected CG flashes above for 24-hours ending at 0803 UTC - 0103 am), as there was little activity over eastern half of Pima and most of Pinal Counties.
Most forecasts I saw yesterday were basically a bust, with too much storm activity and precipitation indicated. There were isolated showers however - light rain was measured at 8 ALERT network sites (below - not shown on plot is 0.20" at Tubac, a bit south of Amado).
Weak height gradients at 500 mb this morning (above) dominate most of the Southwest and northern Mexico; however, Pacific ridge is building inland over the Great Basin. The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (below) is very wet and fairly unstable this morning, but with very light winds through entire sounding. It does look to me like a more favorable sounding for afternoon storms than was yesterday's.
The forecast above (from 12 UTC WRF-RR) is for precipitation through midnight tonight - model again forecasts activity over much of the metro area. Forecast below (from 06 UTC GFS) is for total rainfall this week through 5:00 pm Friday afternoon - models continue to indicate a wet week as August draws toward an end.
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