Storms Possible Through The Weekend

View of the Catalinas at 7:50 am MST this morning with a patch of middle clouds overhead.

There were isolated thunderstorms around the greater metro area yesterday, as per ALERT data (above and below) for the 24-hours ending at 8:00 am this morning. Heaviest reports were to the south and east of downtown. Second below shows the detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) for the 24-hours ending at 01:30 am - note the heavy activity in Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties.

Several reports of note include: wind damage with major tree limbs down southwest of Oro Valley (two reports of around 1.50" of rain in this area also); thunder and gusts to 48 mph at the airport at about 6:35 pm (similar winds here) with a Trace at airport and nothing here; reports of 1.73" of rain at Barrel Canyon and 3.97" (??) at Parker Canyon - these sites along Highway 83 north and south of Sonoita.

Radar loops from El Paso show that the approaching system is indeed a closed low (base scan image above from 1231 UTC) - the loop from El Paso is quite impressive.

The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (above) remains very moist and unstable, but with unorganized, light winds aloft.

Various runs of the WRF model last night and this morning have different outcomes for the metro area today. Above graphic shows rainfall through midnight from from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS, while the graphic below is through midnight from the 12 UTC WRF-RR.

The two panels at bottom show current morning forecast from the NWS Forecast Office, featuring very high POPs this afternoon through the weekend.