Severe Thunderstorms

Colorful skies this morning just before sunrise - above from about 5:30 am MST.

There was significant thunderstorm activity across the metro area last night - plot of detected CG flashes above is for 24-hours ending at 1003 UTC this morning. There were 5 reports of severe winds last evening in Arizona. Four of these were around the airport (airport recorded a gust to 60 mph at 9:16 pm) and the other was east of Tombstone. The IR satellite image (below from NCAR RAL) at 0532 UTC shows a very large MCS over Sonora, extending into southeast Arizona.

Rainfall was widespread across the metro area as per the ALERT charts for the 24-hours ending at 6:00 am this morning. Reports were generally less than half an inch - 0.09" here, 0.10" at Atmo, 0.05" at DM, and a  Trace at the airport.

The morning sounding for TWC/TUS (above) has less PW and CAPE than did yesterday's; and the onion-shape indicates that downdrafts behind the storm activity have had a drying impact. The main question for today will be whether or not the BL below 700 mb can recover and support intense storms later today.  I have my doubts given the usual scenario after widespread rain across the low elevations.

However, the early WRF runs at Atmo are forecasting storms for eastern Pima County - above forecast from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS is valid at 5:30 pm. The model does forecast the most intense activity and strong to severe winds occurring out west of our area.

A special morning graphic and the current forecast from NWS (two graphics below) emphasize the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, as well as blowing dust (given the wet ground over much of metro the threat of blowing dust would likely be out in central and western Pima County).

I'll be very interested to see what actually transpires this afternoon and evening!