Nice color this morning, about 5:40 am MST, over the Catalinas.
Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) above is for 24-hours ending at 12:33 am this morning. Thunderstorms over parts of metro and especially west of the interstates.
ALERT data (above and below) are for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning. There were 21 sites with more than half an inch, with heaviest amounts along western portion of the network - note the 2.17" at Three Points.
The airport had thunder but only 0.01" of rain; DM reported only a Trace; but Atmo had 0.39"; and here at house we had 0.66".
At 500 mb the weak, tropical low is drifting westward toward the northern GoC, where the models keep it through the weekend. Current center of the circulation appears to be south of the New Mexico Bootheel.
The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (above from NCAR RAL) remains very moist below 400 mb, with north to northeasterly winds aloft. However, there is little potential CAPE available, even if BL heats out to 700 mb.
WRF model runs for rainfall through midnight tonight: above from 06 UTC WRF-GFS (which was the better forecast yesterday) indicates light showers for parts of the metro area; below from the 12 UTC WRF-RR indicating our area and most of eastern Pima County remaining dry.
Given the widespread rainfall yesterday evening and night, I would go with the down-day forecast.
The NWS forecast (second below) remains very aggressive and wet, with POPs increasing to 90 percent this afternoon.
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